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Author Topic: Shares Plummet  (Read 38372 times)

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« Reply #25 on: August 07, 2015, 16:20 »
+3
Paid downloads rose 14% Y/Y in Q2, and revenue/download 13%. The size of Shutterstock's library rose 11% Q/Q and 47% Y/Y to 57.2M images.

Adobe competition or investors wake up to over priced stock?

If earnings dropped while revenue rose then their costs have increased.  They certainly haven't increased what they pay us so it must be somewhere else - too much for top management?  Too many employee perks?

I think the stock was overvalued and due for a drop but the magnitude of it that fast was surprising - maybe all of the insiders saw it coming and cashed out their options.


« Reply #26 on: August 07, 2015, 18:05 »
+2
Paid downloads rose 14% Y/Y in Q2, and revenue/download 13%. The size of Shutterstock's library rose 11% Q/Q and 47% Y/Y to 57.2M images.

Adobe competition or investors wake up to over priced stock?


If earnings dropped while revenue rose then their costs have increased. 

They certainly haven't increased what they pay us so it must be somewhere else - too much for top management?  Too many employee perks?

I think the stock was overvalued and due for a drop but the magnitude of it that fast was surprising - maybe all of the insiders saw it coming and cashed out their options.


Snip

GAAP net income in the quarter was $5.3 million or $0.15 per share, as compared to $4.9 million or $0.14 per share a year ago. The increase primarily reflects the improved operating performance, offset somewhat by increases in stock-based compensation expense.

Non-GAAP net income, which primarily excludes the after-tax impact of non-cash equity-based compensation expense and the amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, increased 23% in the second quarter to $11.2 million or $0.31 per share.

Snip

So for the full year of 2015, we're updating our guidance as follows: Revenue of $425 million to $430 million; adjusted EBIDTA of $82 million to $85 million; non-cash equity-based compensation expense of approximately $31 million; an effective tax rate approximately 44%; and capital expenditures approximately $18 million.

And now taking a look specifically at the third quarter, and we are assuming in these figures both for the quarter and the full year no material change from current U.S. Dollar exchange rates, we expect in the third quarter revenue of $105 million to $108 million; adjusted EBITDA of $18 million to $20 million; non-cash equity-based compensation expense of approximately $8 million; an effective tax rate of 44%; and CapEx of approximately $5 million.

Snip

Operating expenses increased 32% versus the second quarter a year ago, with the primary driver being the higher contributor royalties associated with our growing revenue base. Contributor royalties were again stable at approximately 28% of our revenue in the second quarter.

Given the consistency in our contributor payout ratio, our gross margin has also remained largely steady at approximately 60% this past quarter excluding stock compensation expense.

Sales and marketing expense was approximately 25% of revenue in the quarter, excluding stock compensation costs. Though we are seeing somewhat higher keyword costs due to competition, it is important to note that our overall marketing spend as a percent of revenue is essentially unchanged versus the prior-year quarter.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/3408976-shutterstock-sstk-jonathan-oringer-on-q2-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript
« Last Edit: August 07, 2015, 19:37 by gbalex »

Tror

« Reply #27 on: August 07, 2015, 18:21 »
+2
Good news. A destructive system loses power.

« Reply #28 on: August 07, 2015, 20:36 »
+5
Thanks for providing that gbalex - so basically their profits are off because they are paying out too much in stock options to management.  Or at least that's how I interpret that.  It's a different mechanism but basically the same strategy that eventually severely damaged iStock.

« Reply #29 on: August 07, 2015, 21:45 »
+4
"With more contributors than ever uploading their best content and a state-of-the-art processing operation and best images 24 hours a day, seven days a week, we believe we are well positioned to scale the supply-side of our marketplace for years to come."

I simply can't see how that can turn out to be true.   I have a hard time imagining who would even be continuing to submit microstock at all, in years to come. 
 

« Reply #30 on: August 08, 2015, 00:29 »
+2

I simply can't see how that can turn out to be true.   I have a hard time imagining who would even be continuing to submit microstock at all, in years to come.

I still see a lot of good looking stuff coming in from the factories.  None of it original AT ALL, but gives the impression that quality is still coming.  We're getting closer to the time when it will be just excited newbs and big factories. 

Wonder if the factories are feeling the same type of hurt as the individual pros? 

« Reply #31 on: August 08, 2015, 00:49 »
+9
I don't know about everyone else, but i started to to have doubts about shutterstock about a year ago. It probably is due to a fact that they admit to continue selling cheap to gain market share while the quality of the images rises. istock started at 10 cents a download but they adjusted their price along the years to reflect the quality at least. Did shutterstock raise their's? I am not sure on this matter.
I also bought shares of shutterstock when they were originally in the 40s and sold them in mid 90's when the Getty free images hoopla happened. I felt the general consensus among many of the members here turn from yay to boo around the same time my feelings turned south. In my view, there has been no positive news for contributors lately.
The market isn't stupid. This business model depends on crowdsourcing. The market see the pitchforks being sharpened by its contributors and many are voicing their complaints. I think the stock reflects the overall contributor mood which is going south...

« Reply #32 on: August 08, 2015, 02:06 »
+8
I lost a lot of faith in SS over how they ran BigStock.  Theirs no excuse for owning a site that starts to follow the flawed strategy that istock implemented.  Just look at BigStock in the earnings polls, they were doing better for most of us as an independent site.

« Reply #33 on: August 08, 2015, 03:21 »
+1
A possible cost factor for SS that must have increased dramatically is the cost of reviewing images. Based on their new (irrational) review strategy the average review cost per accepted images must have doubled in recent times since a large percentage of accepted images were probably reviewed at least twice before acceptance.

« Reply #34 on: August 08, 2015, 07:03 »
0
Although according to some they have automated the process! I'm not sure since the quality of reviewing doesn't give the impression they spend much time on it!

« Reply #35 on: August 08, 2015, 08:01 »
+5
I don't know about everyone else, but i started to to have doubts about shutterstock about a year ago. It probably is due to a fact that they admit to continue selling cheap to gain market share while the quality of the images rises. istock started at 10 cents a download but they adjusted their price along the years to reflect the quality at least. Did shutterstock raise their's? I am not sure on this matter.
I also bought shares of shutterstock when they were originally in the 40s and sold them in mid 90's when the Getty free images hoopla happened. I felt the general consensus among many of the members here turn from yay to boo around the same time my feelings turned south. In my view, there has been no positive news for contributors lately.

The market isn't stupid. This business model depends on crowdsourcing. The market see the pitchforks being sharpened by its contributors and many are voicing their complaints. I think the stock reflects the overall contributor mood which is going south...



You summed it up well and I agree. My enthusiasm took a real hit when I read these comments from Shutterstock Management when they presented at the Goldman Sachs US Emerging Cap Growth Conference.

Shutterstock publicly admitted that they have purposely chosen not to raise prices as a business strategy to gain market share. Shutterstock has also stated that they will continue to price undercut the competition as a long term business road path.

"We havent raised prices in many years and then been a great strategy so far to grow."


Snip
Duck Swartz

So whats changed in the marketplace thats giving you the opportunity to locate in the enterprise in a more, in a more robust way?
Timothy E. Bixby - CFO

The quality of the images has increased pretty dramatically over the past 10 years

So in the past five years the contents gone up to a level where the biggest publishers in the world mediated either starting to notice that is price, these images are not only price well, but they are also similar to some images that they have paid thousands of dollars for and also had to be on the phone for an hour negotiating the license for that image.

Snip

Duck Swartz

Talking about your present strategy longer term?

Timothy E. Bixby - CFO

We think we can raise the prices over the long term but were primary in the growth mode right now and we would like to continue to cover as much of the world as possible and take as much as growth in the business that we can before we play with the pricing level.

We havent raised prices in many years and then been a great strategy so far to grow.

Snip
Jonathan Oringer - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

It still multiples. So it's order of magnitude whether it's if you look at us compared to other stock marketplaces like an iStock or others, it's two or three or four times more expensive to not use Shutterstock. If you look at the higher end sort of more traditional marketed might be 6 or 8 or 10 times more expensive.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1841072-shutterstocks-management-presents-at-the-goldman-sachs-us-emerging-smid-cap-growth-conference-transcript?page=2&p=qanda&l=last

« Reply #36 on: August 08, 2015, 08:07 »
0
Although according to some they have automated the process! I'm not sure since the quality of reviewing doesn't give the impression they spend much time on it!

Too bad one of the analyst did not ask about shutterstocks "state-of-the-art processing operation". It would be interesting to hear how they describe it to the financial crowd.

"With more contributors than ever uploading their best content and a state-of-the-art processing operation and best images 24 hours a day, seven days a week, we believe we are well positioned to scale the supply-side of our marketplace for years to come."

« Reply #37 on: August 08, 2015, 08:49 »
0
Just to add to their review and response-to-queries' costs, it appears that the "categories missing" problem has resurfaced. I got a rejection for "Incorrect category" and when I submitted a query, I got a response (which appears to be written in a hurry), that only the title had the relevant information. This had led me to infer that my categories that appeared to be intact at the time of submission, had vanished in their system after that.

So, for now, I am telling myself to double-check all items (categories / illustration flag etc.) just prior to submitting the images. Beyond that, we cannot do much :)

Rose Tinted Glasses

« Reply #38 on: August 08, 2015, 09:40 »
0
I don't know about everyone else, but i started to to have doubts about shutterstock about a year ago. It probably is due to a fact that they admit to continue selling cheap to gain market share while the quality of the images rises. istock started at 10 cents a download but they adjusted their price along the years to reflect the quality at least. Did shutterstock raise their's? I am not sure on this matter.
I also bought shares of shutterstock when they were originally in the 40s and sold them in mid 90's when the Getty free images hoopla happened. I felt the general consensus among many of the members here turn from yay to boo around the same time my feelings turned south. In my view, there has been no positive news for contributors lately.
The market isn't stupid. This business model depends on crowdsourcing. The market see the pitchforks being sharpened by its contributors and many are voicing their complaints. I think the stock reflects the overall contributor mood which is going south...

I had my doubts regarding Shutterstock in 2007 when I first started to play in the microstock arena. 0.25c royalties were a complete insult 8 years ago, and they are a complete insult today. Needless to say I never sold myself out.


« Reply #39 on: August 08, 2015, 15:17 »
+3
Not surprised. The only way you're going to make money on Shutterstock is if you short the stock as it continues to fall. It still has a P/E ratio of 60 so it's still overpriced. Also as the news of Adobe getting into the game starts to sink in, more people will be looking at the figures more closely and asking more questions about the marketplace. Jon Oringer is going to be in for a fun ride as he deals with angry investors seeking answers to their losing investments. Oh well, you live by the sword... If you want to buy a stock, you'd be better off buying Apple instead. (Adobe is also overpriced)

This just in, someone at Cantor Fitzgerald has been taking cat drugs: "Cantor Fitzgerald Analyst Reaffirmed $72.0 Price Target on Shutterstock (NYSE:SSTK) stock, While Reiterating Buy Rating" - Sweet mother of god...

http://www.octafinance.com/cantor-fitzgerald-analyst-reaffirmed-72-0-price-target-on-shutterstock-nysesstk-stock-while-reiterating-buy-rating/

« Reply #40 on: August 08, 2015, 16:58 »
+8
If we learned just one thing from the dot-com bubble, it was that those "analysts" are often just a well paid marketing arm of the companies they're "analyzing".   

« Reply #41 on: August 08, 2015, 18:30 »
+1
Shutterstock (SSTK) Stock Downgraded at Jefferies

Snip

Downgraded to "hold" from "buy" at Jefferies, which cut price target to $39 from $90.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13249151/1/shutterstock-sstk-stock-downgraded-at-jefferies.html


Shutterstock (NYSE:SSTK) Was Downgraded by Analysts at RBC Capital

Snip

Shutterstock (NYSE:SSTK)s rating was cut by stock analysts at RBC Capital from a Sector Perform rating to a Outperform rating in a research report issued on Wednesday morning.

The stock downgrade is probably noticed by stock traders, as NYSE:SSTK is now trading -2.24% lower at $33.65 as of 07:13 New York time. Shutterstock shares have declined -54.5% in the last 200 days, while the S&P500 Index has risen 7.02% in the same time period.

http://www.octafinance.com/shutterstock-nysesstk-was-downgraded-by-analysts-at-rbc-capital-to-a-outperform-rating/


« Last Edit: August 08, 2015, 18:32 by gbalex »


« Reply #42 on: August 08, 2015, 21:41 »
+1

Too bad one of the analyst did not ask about shutterstocks "state-of-the-art processing operation". It would be interesting to hear how they describe it to the financial crowd.


analyst are no better than weather station ppl predicting the weather.
those of us old enough to have started investing in the 80s would remember there was a bunch of experts who made alot of money as teachers of investing. i was one of those who bought their lessons.
later they started an investment company, so we all went in big time since they were all experts.
we lost big time as well.  the only ppl who actually make money in stock market are the sales agents.
and the inside traders. everybody else are brought in for the roller coaster ride, just so wall st continues to make money as the rest of us lost our pants off our retirement savings.

« Reply #43 on: August 08, 2015, 21:51 »
0

Too bad one of the analyst did not ask about shutterstocks "state-of-the-art processing operation". It would be interesting to hear how they describe it to the financial crowd.


analyst are no better than weather station ppl predicting the weather.
those of us old enough to have started investing in the 80s would remember there was a bunch of experts who made alot of money as teachers of investing. i was one of those who bought their lessons.
later they started an investment company, so we all went in big time since they were all experts.
we lost big time as well.  the only ppl who actually make money in stock market are the sales agents.
and the inside traders. everybody else are brought in for the roller coaster ride, just so wall st continues to make money as the rest of us lost our pants off our retirement savings.

I was more interested in how shutterstock would sell themselves to market investors re "state-of-the-art processing operation"

« Reply #44 on: August 08, 2015, 22:05 »
+11
I don't know about everyone else, but i started to to have doubts about shutterstock about a year ago. It probably is due to a fact that they admit to continue selling cheap to gain market share while the quality of the images rises. istock started at 10 cents a download but they adjusted their price along the years to reflect the quality at least. Did shutterstock raise their's? I am not sure on this matter.
I also bought shares of shutterstock when they were originally in the 40s and sold them in mid 90's when the Getty free images hoopla happened. I felt the general consensus among many of the members here turn from yay to boo around the same time my feelings turned south. In my view, there has been no positive news for contributors lately.
The market isn't stupid. This business model depends on crowdsourcing. The market see the pitchforks being sharpened by its contributors and many are voicing their complaints. I think the stock reflects the overall contributor mood which is going south...

I had my doubts regarding Shutterstock in 2007 when I first started to play in the microstock arena. 0.25c royalties were a complete insult 8 years ago, and they are a complete insult today. Needless to say I never sold myself out.

I was istock exclusive since 2007 or so and quit being exclusive there about 2 years ago. I am happier for leaving exclusivity as I didn't need the blood pressure spikes I would get from the sheer greed of that company when getty took over. I also have to say that I never did this full time so the decision for me to leave is a lot easier than someone who is a full timer. I am a vector artist and would never put anything i deem to have any real creative value into shutterstock portfolio and concentrate on simple general images that brings me hundreds a month with minimal effort from my part.

The sad fact is if you are used to getting so much more money for your images, anything less than $1 is an insult. But for many who got into this industry in recent years, it has become the norm. I believe those high paying days are gone and Shutterstock played a huge role in bringing this industry to where it is today.

I blame it on Jon Oringer. He isn't a creative person. He is just a tech geek that took thousands of snap shots in his first year to start this site. i am sure he took hundreds of photos a day with no creativity at all. Anyone who is creative person values creativity and knows it takes hard work and lots of passion to get to a highly skilled level.

You say you never sold yourself out. Its guys like Jon, or the suits at Getty that have absolutely no respect for creativity that really sold you out.

marthamarks

« Reply #45 on: August 08, 2015, 22:33 »
+3
You say you never sold yourself out. Its guys like Jon, or the suits at Getty that have absolutely no respect for creativity that really sold you out.

Very well said, and right on the money or lack thereof.

« Reply #46 on: August 09, 2015, 00:42 »
+3
Hilarious how they downgrade SSTK only after the shares fall 30%. These analysts know nothing.

In my country there are often companies with P/E below 7, sometimes even 3.
When buying a P/E 20+ you're solely relying on the greater fool theory.

« Reply #47 on: August 09, 2015, 09:39 »
+2
I was more interested in how shutterstock would sell themselves to market investors re "state-of-the-art processing operation"

yes, we used to have FRED for everything state of the art in IT.
today ss has ATILLA  8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)

« Reply #48 on: August 09, 2015, 10:04 »
+2
Well said VB inc. I completely agree, however I also think greed played a large part in the equation.

Two of the key players Insight Venture Capitol put in place, have now moved on. They usually stay as long as it is lucrative for them to do so. As for the bottom line, they will need to offer stock incentives to the two new replacements. 

It will be interesting to see how things develop once the majority of IS exclusive defectors hit higher payout levels. They are trying to attract new contributors much more aggressively than in the past, however for most, it takes time to develop the skill necessary to be competitive and it takes time to build large portfolios.

I wonder how the market will respond when it becomes necessary to start paying higher royalties for the majority of their collection, because it will eat into profits. 

« Last Edit: August 09, 2015, 10:42 by gbalex »

FlowerPower

« Reply #49 on: August 10, 2015, 08:06 »
+1
Ouch.  Good thing I only put a couple hundred in there.  Time to buy more?

You gotta be kidding me. P/E is still sky high and the stock market bubble is about to burst.

Far over the real value. People like my Grandmother jumped on this and pushed it up. SSTK is bound to come back to a realistic price in a big adjustment. This could be it.


 

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