US inflation will likely drop below 5% by the end of the year, EU even lower.

this cycle is different since it's so covid related - as we return to normal, accrued savings are causing a rise demand vs supply for goods.  plus, the US Fed will be raising interest rates over the next few months

the big unknown is how Russia's invasion will affect oil prices worldwide, and food prices in less developed countries (Ukraine & Russia are large exporters of wheat, corn (19%)& sunflower oil (80%))
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/opinion/what-the-war-in-ukraine-means-for-the-worlds-food-supply.html

Only 1 percent of all corn grown in this country is eaten by humans. The rest is No. 2 yellow field corn, which is indigestible to humans and used in animal feed, food supplements and ethanol. but the use of ethanol for gasoline means edible corn is not grown, which could help with worldwide food shortages.

This not true at all. Inflation is the decline of the purchasing power of a currency for any reason and is measured most often by the increase of an average price level of a basket of selected goods. That�s all it is. It's cause is another matter.

Quote from: Justanotherphotographer on March 02, 2022, 06:25

This not true at all. Inflation is the decline of the purchasing power of a currency for any reason and is measured most often by the increase of an average price level of a basket of selected goods. That�s all it is. It's cause is another matter.

Yes, you are right with one observation. Many who are commenting on inflation do not realise that inflation is referring to a sustained increase in the general price level (as distinct from normal fluctuations).

As I said, the labor shortage caused by the pandemic is temporary and we will recover from it. That's not inflation.
The surge of the oil price caused by the scarcity of Russian oil is temporary, therefore not inflation. Likewise, the price increase for rooms in beach resort hotels during the summer is temporary, therefore not inflation.

The economists' consensus is that inflation is caused by "the growth in the money supply, alongside increased velocity of money".
Besides, many have also "inflated" its meaning by using terms like "oil price inflation", "house price inflation", etc instead of just "price increase".

Quote from: thijsdegraaf on March 02, 2022, 13:56

The reason doesn't matter. A country's inflation is tracked and reported. Even if that is, for example, 1%.
Inflation can also arise if a country borrows too much. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic
Before burglars stole my old coins, I had old German banknotes of over a million marks.

A country would rather have a small inflation than a deflation. High inflation not, of course.

Yes Thijs, borrowing followed by printing money to pay the debt.
This is also mentioned in the article you quoted:
The debt problem was exacerbated by printing money without any economic resources to back it

Printing money (all kinds) and the inflation it generates, is a hidden form of taxation.

So the reason doesn't matter, because there is no other reason. Everything else is just supply-demand fluctuation.
The two factors may overlap, like these days, but the total price increase is not only caused by inflation. Only a part (an important one) is.

But politicians like to blame someone else for the additional hidden tax required to pay their excessive expenses.

Quote from: thijsdegraaf on March 02, 2022, 14:41

Quote from: Zero Talent on March 02, 2022, 14:09

Quote from: thijsdegraaf on March 02, 2022, 13:56

The reason doesn't matter. A country's inflation is tracked and reported. Even if that is, for example, 1%.
Inflation can also arise if a country borrows too much. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic
Before burglars stole my old coins, I had old German banknotes of over a million marks.

A country would rather have a small inflation than a deflation. High inflation not, of course.

Yes Thijs, borrowing followed by printing money to pay the debt.
This is also mentioned in the article you quoted:
The debt problem was exacerbated by printing money without any economic resources to back it

Printing money (all kinds) and the inflation it generates, is a hidden form of taxation.

So the reason doesn't matter, because there is no other reason. Everything else is just supply-demand fluctuation.
The two factors may overlap, like these days, but the total price increase is not only caused by inflation. Only a part (an important one) is.

But politicians like to blame someone else for the additional hidden tax required to pay their excessive expenses.

Inflation is inflation whatever the cause. Hot is hot. it could be because of the sun, but also because I ran really hard. 
I know that these two causes are close to each other.
Our house prices are rising way too fast. One reason is that too little has been built. Another cause is that rich people, foreign companies buy them up to rent out, driving prices up even further. There are still a few causes. But it also causes inflation to us.

No really, Thijs. Inflation is not the same as price rise.
As mentioned before, only a global and sustained price rise is inflation.
When the price is rising during the summer on your beach hotel, that's because of supply-demand, not inflation.
So that price is hot, but it's not inflation hot. It will fall back during the cold winter.
It's not a sustained price rise.

And yes, the home prices are going up because of the billions of stimulus checks thrown to the market in 2020 and 2021.
That's the perfect example of inflationary "money printing".

If the home prices are rising because of shortages, that's not inflation, because the money needed to pay a higher price for a home, must be taken from something else. So the global prices are not going up if the money mass remains constant on the market.

Quote from: thijsdegraaf on March 02, 2022, 15:18

I bought my first house fifty years ago for 40 thousand guilders is 20 thousand euros. I am now buying a shed for that. 

I know. That's because there was a lot of money "printing" business going on, during all those 50 years.

"Inflation Is a Misused Word

Inflation is one of the most misused words in economics. As economist Michael Bryan carefully explained a few years back, the word originally described currency and money, not prices. It referred to a rise in the amount of paper currency in circulation relative to the precious metal (or money) that backed it. Later, the term referred to the amount of money in circulation relative to the amount actually needed for trade. Today, however, people typically use the word to refer a rise in some set of prices or even in a single price, with no necessary connection to money at all. So now we have countless types of inflation: oil-price inflation, healthcare inflation, wage inflation. The unfortunate outcome of this evolution is that the public no longer distinguishes between two very different types of price pressure.

Strictly speaking, inflation refers only to a drop in the purchasing power of money that results when a central bank creates more money than its public wants to hold. Inflation manifests itself as a rise in all prices and wages�not just some subset of prices. People, of course, use money to conduct their day-to-day transactions, and their demand for money generally expands as the economy grows. If the public�s demand for money grows at, say, 3 percent per year, but the central bank creates money at 5 percent per year, then all prices and wages will eventually rise at 2 percent per year. Prices will keep climbing as long as the disparity between the supply and demand for money continues."