Author Topic: How do you see the state of this industry and our earnings in 10 - 20 years? (Read 8543 times)

stockman11 · « **on:** July 09, 2023, 14:16 »

Can this industry remain to be a sustainable source of income for us in the following decades? And what are the alternatives if not?

I guess the key questions regarding this subject are:

1. How good will AI image and video generators become over time - will the people rather browse and buy finished content done by "professionals" or they will just type the sentence or keywords and click "generate"?

2. How much the genuine human content will be in demand?

3. Will the race to the bottom ever end, or everything will sooner or later become free? (which would probably mean "game over" for the most of us)

eliaspraciano · « **Reply #1 on:** July 09, 2023, 14:27 »

Quote from: stockman11 on July 09, 2023, 14:16

Can this industry remain to be a sustainable source of income for us in the following decades? And what are the alternatives if not?

I guess the key questions regarding this subject are:

1. How good will AI image and video generators become over time - will the people rather browse and buy finished content done by "professionals" or they will just type the sentence or keywords and click "generate"?

2. How much the genuine human content will be in demand?

3. Will the race to the bottom ever end, or everything will sooner or later become free? (which would probably mean "game over" for the most of us)

If we take into account that other perspectives of other human activities are also not so good, it might be easier to understand where we are heading.
For example, what are the perspectives of those who write books in the coming years?
And who drives (professionally) cars, buses or trucks?
Will it be a world of unemployment and widespread misery?

Sent from my moto g82 5G using Tapatalk

odesigns · « **Reply #2 on:** July 09, 2023, 15:48 »

And what happened to the horse and buggy operators in the early 1900s when cars started to develop? This is the same thing, only a century later.

People will have to pivot and adapt in their own way.

eliaspraciano · « **Reply #3 on:** July 09, 2023, 16:00 »

This "people will have to adapt" talk... YouTube is already full of vloggers saying this.
This conversation became shallow and repetitive IMHO.

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KimC · « **Reply #4 on:** July 09, 2023, 16:03 »

We all know the palette the agencies use to try to get rid of us. "Exciting news", numerous rejections with shady reasons, or terminating accounts for whatever reason they come up with. The end is near. We have seen this before with automation. One assembly worker was replaced with a machine that is now supervised by two engineers. AI will hit its limits. It may take some time to realize that, because the executives are too enthusiastic about getting rid of us, and get the whole share of the peanuts they sell imagery for themselves.
Will it be feasible to develop AI for purposes that sell with so little profit?

We will have to adapt to whatever comes. For my part I have changed my profession to something else that does not involve photograpy or videography.

stoker2014 · « **Reply #5 on:** July 10, 2023, 09:56 »

Everything will be OK. The stock market will remain, revenues will definitely not decrease.

offisapup · « **Reply #6 on:** July 10, 2023, 13:17 »

Think about it this way. 20 years ago, there was no microstock photography. There was stock photography where photographers were paid handsomely for their images. All that changed with shutterstock and the gradual race to the bottom. Why do you think things will be the same 20 years later? There's no reason why what happened to traditional stock photography wouldn't happen to microstock when VR and AR devices become the norm a few years later.

pancaketom · « **Reply #7 on:** July 10, 2023, 14:08 »

Quote from: offisapup on July 10, 2023, 13:17

Think about it this way. 20 years ago, there was no microstock photography. There was stock photography where photographers were paid handsomely for their images. All that changed with shutterstock and the gradual race to the bottom. Why do you think things will be the same 20 years later? There's no reason why what happened to traditional stock photography wouldn't happen to microstock when VR and AR devices become the norm a few years later.

iStock started charging for pics in 2001.

I suspect the slide will continue and despite inflation everywhere else we will get a smaller percent of each cheaper sale which will be greatly diluted by the absolutely massive image libraries and all of the AI generated offerings. Will there be people still making money - yes, but it will be more difficult.

Just_to_inform_people2 · « **Reply #8 on:** July 10, 2023, 15:35 »

People will have lenses in and will be recording eveything and streaming live to whatever is hot to watch by then.

There is no future in this industry. Self proclaimed AI artists are the biggest joke here. They will not survive for even a year. Everyone will soon have the abbility the create every picture they want and it will be flawless.

My advice, go do something else before you run out of money. This is a dead end street. Cash your last payouts for the next year or two (maybe three?) but that will be it.

cobalt · « **Reply #9 on:** July 10, 2023, 15:40 »

Everybody who believes stock is over, should take their own advice and run for the. hills and do something else.

f8 · « **Reply #10 on:** July 10, 2023, 15:41 »

From a platforms (microstock site) perspective in 10-20 years most likely a growth business.
From a contributors persective it has been an industry in decline for years and will continue to do so.

It is very difficult to be profitable when you only get pennies for your work. Take into account there have only been cuts in royalties from all platforms and never an increase and also factor in increased costs and inflation.

That amazing 0.10c to 0.33c we make has actually lost value. The the top 3 platforms are owned by corporations who only serve the shareholders.

Don't spend it all in one spot kids.

Just_to_inform_people2 · « **Reply #11 on:** July 10, 2023, 15:42 »

Quote from: cobalt on July 10, 2023, 15:40

Everybody who believes stock is over, should take their own advice and run for the. hills and do something else.

I do, this was never my main income. Actually, for me it's just fun on the side. But I really mean it for people who count on this. There is no future, take care of yourself before you run into problems.

Anyka · « **Reply #12 on:** July 11, 2023, 01:08 »

I have no crystal ball, but there is also this possibility : in 10 years, people might 've gotten so used to AI and working with AI generators, that there is no longer any NEED for stock agencies - people will generate the images and videos themselves, without using stock agencies. The libraries could be completely obsolete. So what will be left for us? Direct clients: photographing the people (and their pets) for portraits. Beside stock photography, I'm also a newborn photographer, and at this moment, I can't see how AI will be able to replace that in the near future. People will still want to document the important life events like births and weddings. People will still want a beautiful portrait of their family, in their best dresses, with makeup and the whole "experience" of a photo session? So who will be the losers then? The agencies themselves?

HalfFull · « **Reply #13 on:** July 11, 2023, 02:58 »

Quote from: J_Stock on July 09, 2023, 15:48

And what happened to the horse and buggy operators in the early 1900s when cars started to develop? This is the same thing, only a century later.

People will have to pivot and adapt in their own way.

While I agree to an extent, 1x Horse buggy driver = 1x car driver (to an extent). AI = potentially millions of lost jobs with minimal new opportunities to replace it. I mean, how many AI programers will be needed. When mechanical equipment replaced the horse and cart on the farm, there were a lot of new jobs coming up to replace the massive job losses in the countryside. I really don't see a massive increase in new jobs to replace all the jobs lost.

I think a lot of political figures etc are starting to realise the implications now. The same as they cheered home working because of its environmental benefits only to backpedal when they realised how many city centre jobs would be lost. The lost Tax revenue of people not working has potential to cause massive problems to health and public services that are not directly effected by AI but due to the reduction in money will available due to lost taxes. You can't just tax companies otherwise they'll leave or invest elsewhere.

We are certainly entering a challenging phase, I just need to get by for 10-12 years before I retire but, I really feel for the young going forward with fewer jobs available and more and more people fighting for them.

cobalt · « **Reply #14 on:** July 11, 2023, 03:46 »

Quote from: Anyka on July 11, 2023, 01:08

I have no crystal ball, but there is also this possibility : in 10 years, people might 've gotten so used to AI and working with AI generators, that there is no longer any NEED for stock agencies - people will generate the images and videos themselves, without using stock agencies. The libraries could be completely obsolete.

I doubt this. People also worried about this when mobile phones started to have excellent image quality. Nobody will work with photographers anymore...they will all take their own pictures...

To be able to generate good images, you need a lot of visual experience to describe what it is you actually want.

People go to agencies because they usually have a vague idea what they need, then dig around the collections until they find something that fits.

What could happen is that they take a screen shot, throw it into an ai and generate a similar image for themselves...but how many would do this? Just like customers rarely hunt across different to see if the image can be found 3 cents cheaper elsewhere.

But the main thing we sell on agencies is time.

The customer has no time.

So I think it will always be a lot easier to browse a huge collection instead of coming up with visual concepts yourself, especially when you don't even know which words are needed to direct the ai.

I think what is more likely, is that customers use ai to tweak an image they found to perfection.

The perfect group photo of guys having fun...but no beards? use ai to give them all beards.

Love the family on the beach...ask the ai to transport them to a winter setting with winter clothes...

Something like that...

Noedelhap · « **Reply #15 on:** July 11, 2023, 03:59 »

This industry will change without a doubt, for better or worse. Everything changes over time, whether it's new technology, new social norms, new fashion trends. The big question is: are you able to adapt? I'd like to think we creatives are able to use our artistic skills to adapt and make the changes in the industry work for us rather than against us. Life, uh, finds a way.

HalfFull · « **Reply #16 on:** July 11, 2023, 04:22 »

Quote from: Noedelhap on July 11, 2023, 03:59

This industry will change without a doubt, for better or worse. Everything changes over time, whether it's new technology, new social norms, new fashion trends. The big question is: are you able to adapt? I'd like to think we creatives are able to use our artistic skills to adapt and make the changes in the industry work for us rather than against us. Life, uh, finds a way.

The work I produce today is very different to what I started out doing.

Her Ugliness · « **Reply #17 on:** July 11, 2023, 04:30 »

Quote from: cobalt on July 11, 2023, 03:46

I doubt this. People also worried about this when mobile phones started to have excellent image quality.

I never worried about that - Because 1) I do not know a single phone that takes photos of "excellent image quality". The lens is simply not big enough and no matter how good the softwear gets, the hardwear will always have that limitation. 2) Taking a good photo was never primarly about just having good equipment. I am startled about how many people here use the "taking a photo is just pushing a button" argument when defending AI images. Strange. If it is really "just pushing a button", why does pretty much every single person I know constantly aks me to take photos of their wedding, their birthday party, their new born child, their pet, products they want to sell and pretty much everything else? And when I am fed up with it and simply want to give them my camera so they can do it themselves suddenly it is "Uhm, no, you do it, my photos do not turn out like yours".
So, maybe not just pushing a button after all?

cobalt · « **Reply #18 on:** July 11, 2023, 06:43 »

I agree, just "pushing a button" is not what makes our images sell.

Just "writing a prompt" is not what I do when I create content with the assistance of ai.

The whole research, mood board, concept, design choices for color, lighting, angles....it does not happen by itself.

DiscreetDuck · « **Reply #19 on:** July 11, 2023, 08:38 »

Quote from: cobalt on July 11, 2023, 06:43

I agree, just "pushing a button" is not what makes our images sell. Just "writing a prompt" is not what I do when I create content with the assistance of ai. The whole research, mood board, concept, design choices for color, lighting, angles....it does not happen by itself.

Realize that you only enjoy being a tool for AI, that is what you are. And in a near future, this tool will become obsolete. After all, you already decided to become obsolete for taking photos.

cobalt · « **Reply #20 on:** July 11, 2023, 09:49 »

I take photos and videos every day???

You live in a dreamworld.

DiscreetDuck · « **Reply #21 on:** July 11, 2023, 12:00 »

Quote from: cobalt on July 11, 2023, 09:49

I take photos and videos every day???

Hem, you don't really remember?

Quote from: cobalt on July 11, 2023, 09:49

You live in a dreamworld.

If my world makes you dream, no issue with that

Maybe yours is more naive or... optimistic!!

cascoly · « **Reply #22 on:** July 11, 2023, 13:55 »

Quote from: HalfFull on July 11, 2023, 02:58

...
While I agree to an extent, 1x Horse buggy driver = 1x car driver (to an extent). AI = potentially millions of lost jobs with minimal new opportunities to replace it. I mean, how many AI programers will be needed. When mechanical equipment replaced the horse and cart on the farm, there were a lot of new jobs coming up to replace the massive job losses in the countryside. I really don't see a massive increase in new jobs to replace all the jobs lost.

I think a lot of political figures etc are starting to realise the implications now. The same as they cheered home working because of its environmental benefits only to backpedal when they realised how many city centre jobs would be lost. The lost Tax revenue of people not working has potential to cause massive problems to health and public services that are not directly effected by AI but due to the reduction in money will available due to lost taxes. You can't just tax companies otherwise they'll leave or invest elsewhere.

We are certainly entering a challenging phase, I just need to get by for 10-12 years before I retire but, I really feel for the young going forward with fewer jobs available and more and more people fighting for them.

the biggest problem when facing automation changes is that most thinking is within the box of our capitalist system that results in vast inequality. enormous profits go to shareholders & owners & employers squeezed from the work of others. redistribution (aka tax the rich) would allow a softer landing for the displaced with job training, education and as a last resort guaranteed incomes. it's not an impossible path, in theory. but it would require major changes in the US, less so in EU, but those in power have no incentive to make any changes.

i dont have a major stake in the future, but as you say, there's concern for the next generations; so i support progressive movements pushing the rock up the hill -=- I retired early from my previous career in online gaming (in the 80s) & other computer consulting to pursue other interests. my current income is low but i don't have major expenses. my ms sales pay for some of my travel

cascoly · « **Reply #23 on:** July 11, 2023, 14:04 »

Quote from: Her Ugliness on July 11, 2023, 04:30

Quote from: cobalt on July 11, 2023, 03:46

I doubt this. People also worried about this when mobile phones started to have excellent image quality.

I never worried about that - Because 1) I do not know a single phone that takes photos of "excellent image quality". The lens is simply not big enough and no matter how good the softwear gets, the hardwear will always have that limitation. 2) Taking a good photo was never primarly about just having good equipment. I am startled about how many people here use the "taking a photo is just pushing a button" argument when defending AI images. Strange. If it is really "just pushing a button", why does pretty much every single person I know constantly aks me to take photos of their wedding, their birthday party, their new born child, their pet, products they want to sell and pretty much everything else? And when I am fed up with it and simply want to give them my camera so they can do it themselves suddenly it is "Uhm, no, you do it, my photos do not turn out like yours".
So, maybe not just pushing a button after all?

all true, but that argument is mostly a riposte to those who claim AI needs no input from the artist. And it's also true of AI - it's not just about writing a prompt and many folk will not want to use AI (for a variety of reasons)

so i think ms itself will still fulfill a need, but the return to artists may force them to adapt or drop by the wayside (where they'll strangle in all those buggy whips and unspooling Betamax tapes)

stockman11 · « **Reply #24 on:** July 14, 2023, 15:58 »

delete

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Author Topic: How do you see the state of this industry and our earnings in 10 - 20 years? (Read 8543 times)

stockman11

eliaspraciano

odesigns

eliaspraciano

KimC

stoker2014

offisapup

pancaketom

Just_to_inform_people2

cobalt

f8

Just_to_inform_people2

Anyka

HalfFull

cobalt

Noedelhap

HalfFull

Her Ugliness

cobalt

DiscreetDuck

cobalt

DiscreetDuck

cascoly

cascoly

stockman11

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