Author Topic: Checkmate is approaching faster than I thought Who will be the winner? (Read 7961 times)

everest · « **on:** January 03, 2021, 13:54 »

The stock industry is consolidating faster than I thought only a few years ago. I think most players are irrelevant already that were still on the radar not so long ago.

Small players are already totally wiped out and sending anything to them is a huge waste of time and an opportunity that your content lands in the wrong hands. Middle tier have also mostly slipped down. Alamy 123RF, Dreamstine,Envato,Deposit are a shadow of what they were and in a few years will join the low ballers if they aren't already.

Now the "big players" that are competing as hard as never before even if it means for some of them trumping their relationship with contributors:

The 800 pound gorilla has shrunk to a baboon with a red and ugly ...... Still on the top list but falling every month. I remember when the exclusive number was around 300 (earning rating on the right). Very soon that number will be under 1 agency where you don't need to be exclusive. Their 15% has made many people loose interest. Less content less buyers.

Shutterstock: Well they lost their leadership a few months ago and will keep falling. Many demotivated people have already abandoned them and this trend will persist. Thy still have a lot of content but others are taking the throne fast.

Pond5: They are only a player in video but I think they will be part of the leadership group in this area for a while. I wish they could get stronger and also make a dent in the image department as I think they are by far the most fair agency to contributors.

Adobe: Climbing steadily and killing competition slowly but without merci. I think they are the ones that could turn the whole market upside down if they wanted killing all competitors in a few years. Make file exclusivity happen (50-55%) accept editorial, and start footage subs and Shutter and Istock would be history very fast. A couple of years and they would be gone. Getty/Istock probably bankrupt.

Other more selective or niche players like the few RM or premium agencies left will still survive offering specialized content that is not available on the micros.

In any case if Adobe does not make major mistakes it will be king of the hill by far in 2 or 3 years.

That's how I see it. The post pandemic world is changing many variables so I could be wrong but it will be interesting to see the final check mate when it happens.

eliaspraciano · « **Reply #1 on:** January 03, 2021, 14:45 »

Quote from: everest on January 03, 2021, 13:54

The stock industry is consolidating faster than I thought only a few years ago. I think most players are irrelevant already that were still on the radar not so long ago.

Small players are already totally wiped out and sending anything to them is a huge waste of time and an opportunity that your content lands in the wrong hands. Middle tier have also mostly slipped down. Alamy 123RF, Dreamstine,Envato,Deposit are a shadow of what they were and in a few years will join the low ballers if they aren't already.

Now the "big players" that are competing as hard as never before even if it means for some of them trumping their relationship with contributors:

The 800 pound gorilla has shrunk to a baboon with a red and ugly ...... Still on the top list but falling every month. I remember when the exclusive number was around 300 (earning rating on the right). Very soon that number will be under 1 agency where you don't need to be exclusive. Their 15% has made many people loose interest. Less content less buyers.

Shutterstock: Well they lost their leadership a few months ago and will keep falling. Many demotivated people have already abandoned them and this trend will persist. Thy still have a lot of content but others are taking the throne fast.

Pond5: They are only a player in video but I think they will be part of the leadership group in this area for a while. I wish they could get stronger and also make a dent in the image department as I think they are by far the most fair agency to contributors.

Adobe: Climbing steadily and killing competition slowly but without merci. I think they are the ones that could turn the whole market upside down if they wanted killing all competitors in a few years. Make file exclusivity happen (50-55%) accept editorial, and start footage subs and Shutter and Istock would be history very fast. A couple of years and they would be gone. Getty/Istock probably bankrupt.

Other more selective or niche players like the few RM or premium agencies left will still survive offering specialized content that is not available on the micros.

In any case if Adobe does not make major mistakes it will be king of the hill by far in 2 or 3 years.

That's how I see it. The post pandemic world is changing many variables so I could be wrong but it will be interesting to see the final check mate when it happens.

What are the niche agencies?!

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Horizon · « **Reply #2 on:** January 03, 2021, 15:57 »

I don't understand why you rate Adobe the King of the hill? they manipulate and skew searches as much as the others and not doing any favours at all. I know many big contributors completely slaughtered by Adobe same as SS. They are all nursing the eastern countries!

I think the truth is that no agency is performing well and the big money is gone forever no matter the portfolio content. As far as I'm concerned there are no winners just less losers!

sgoodwin4813 · « **Reply #3 on:** January 03, 2021, 19:00 »

Quote from: Horizon on January 03, 2021, 15:57

I think the truth is that no agency is performing well and the big money is gone forever no matter the portfolio content. As far as I'm concerned there are no winners just less losers!

That pretty well sums it up. The winners are the owners of the big companies, who are doing fine. Contributors and small agencies are definitely the losers.

Last month SS was the lowest since January of 2010 and they were number 3 among the agencies. Adobe was no. 4 so they are not picking up the slack, for me at least.

Roscoe · « **Reply #4 on:** January 04, 2021, 03:53 »

I hope you are right about Adobe, but I fail to see why they wouldn't - at a certain point in time - start dropping prices and commissions too either to match competition (and gain market share) or just to optimize their own earnings, or ... both.

It's hard business, not charity.

kall3bu · « **Reply #5 on:** January 04, 2021, 05:08 »

The search engine on Adobe is indeed the worst I ever seen on an agency.

For example: Mark ´no people´ in the search and the result is still 90% WITH people!
If I were a buyer, I would search on other agencies - even shitterstock is much better for searching results.

eliaspraciano · « **Reply #6 on:** January 04, 2021, 05:13 »

Quote from: kall3bu on January 04, 2021, 05:08

The search engine on Adobe is indeed the worst I ever seen on an agency.

For example: Mark ´no people´ in the search and the result is still 90% WITH people!
If I were a buyer, I would search on other agencies - even shitterstock is much better for searching results.

What to see when Google enters this business

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everest · « **Reply #7 on:** January 04, 2021, 06:36 »

I just think Adobe is becoming the main player in this industry at the expense of Shutterstock and Istock/Getty. All other players are not relevant anymore. Of course they are not doing any of us any favours and the day when they stock tumbles I think we will see the same kind of slashed that Shutter and Istock/Getty and many others have done. But the fact they are very entrenched in the creative community because of their software gives them a huge advantage that will become bigger and bigger.

Quote from: Horizon on January 03, 2021, 15:57

I don't understand why you rate Adobe the King of the hill? they manipulate and skew searches as much as the others and not doing any favours at all. I know many big contributors completely slaughtered by Adobe same as SS. They are all nursing the eastern countries!

I think the truth is that no agency is performing well and the big money is gone forever no matter the portfolio content. As far as I'm concerned there are no winners just less losers!

everest · « **Reply #8 on:** January 04, 2021, 06:37 »

You are totally right on that.

Quote from: Roscoe on January 04, 2021, 03:53

I hope you are right about Adobe, but I fail to see why they wouldn't - at a certain point in time - start dropping prices and commissions too either to match competition (and gain market share) or just to optimize their own earnings, or ... both.

It's hard business, not charity.

everest · « **Reply #9 on:** January 04, 2021, 06:39 »

That would be interesting but I have not seen any sign of this happening anytime soon in the future.

Quote from: eliaspraciano on January 04, 2021, 05:13

What to see when Google enters this business

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[/quote]

everest · « **Reply #10 on:** January 04, 2021, 06:44 »

There are a few that come to my mind: Stocksy, Trevillion, Arcangel, Filmsupply.com, etc.....Everyone of them is focusing on a specific area of visual content. if they are going to survive in the long term is an open question. I hope so.

Quote from: eliaspraciano on January 03, 2021, 14:45

What are the niche agencies?!

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[/quote]

Horizon · « **Reply #11 on:** January 04, 2021, 12:38 »

Quote from: everest on January 04, 2021, 06:44

There are a few that come to my mind: Stocksy, Trevillion, Arcangel, Filmsupply.com, etc.....Everyone of them is focusing on a specific area of visual content. if they are going to survive in the long term is an open question. I hope so.

Quote from: eliaspraciano on January 03, 2021, 14:45

What are the niche agencies?!

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[/quote]

Yes! and apart from these you have SPL ( science Photo ) terrific agency but highly specialised, Offset ( absolute rubbish), Westend ( German weird agency/distributor.)

There isn't a lot I'm afraid and all these are basically just trying to survive. The majority of todays buyers seem to be happy as long as they pay in pennies and not dollars! its a matter of quantity rather then quality.

pancaketom · « **Reply #12 on:** January 04, 2021, 14:03 »

The way I see it is we continue the long slow slide for contributors - or maybe bumpy not so slow slide. Lower prices, lower percentages, image and video numbers rising a lot faster than sales numbers. Probably a few of the little sites will fold or at least just start coasting - if they don't actually work on anything or advertise they can probably squeeze profit for a long time.

Personally the big 3 for me were Shutterstock, Alamy, and Adobe. They have all dropped, but SS the most - and then I turned things off there for good unless I just decide to suck the last of the pennies out of this business or they change something in how they pay contributors. I see the former as more likely). Both Alamy and SS took a bigger cut of each sale this year, and I see no reason for this trend to not continue.

Canva might be the only bright spot compared to last year - but they are basically just giving images away and not really telling us what we make per "sale". I suspect only a few cents. At least they doubled our March income for the rest of the year - although my actual sales never really hit that point.

The changes have been pretty demoralizing for me. Despite what SS might claim - kicking me in the teeth does not motivate me to produce better content or upload more.

Morphart · « **Reply #13 on:** January 06, 2021, 12:01 »

Quote from: pancaketom on January 04, 2021, 14:03

The way I see it is we continue the long slow slide for contributors - or maybe bumpy not so slow slide. Lower prices, lower percentages, image and video numbers rising a lot faster than sales numbers. Probably a few of the little sites will fold or at least just start coasting - if they don't actually work on anything or advertise they can probably squeeze profit for a long time.

Personally the big 3 for me were Shutterstock, Alamy, and Adobe. They have all dropped, but SS the most - and then I turned things off there for good unless I just decide to suck the last of the pennies out of this business or they change something in how they pay contributors. I see the former as more likely). Both Alamy and SS took a bigger cut of each sale this year, and I see no reason for this trend to not continue.

Canva might be the only bright spot compared to last year - but they are basically just giving images away and not really telling us what we make per "sale". I suspect only a few cents. At least they doubled our March income for the rest of the year - although my actual sales never really hit that point.

The changes have been pretty demoralizing for me. Despite what SS might claim - kicking me in the teeth does not motivate me to produce better content or upload more.

Totally agree, Canva is the only one I am very happy with and changed my production to suite the content they needed, and I think Streaming Subscription is the new future (the Netflix model), and for me if the revenue increases, I'm starting to like it more and more. Canva promised to double our earning since they started that, and for me one of my brand did 4x, and one I am 500$ short of having the double without them doubling for me, so quite happy with that.

On the video side, Storyblock started that a while ago and we saw Pond5 and other agencies revenue drop. However, Storyblocks earnings are steadily increasing and they are giving back more and more. Like it or not, I think that it's the new model that works for customers, agencies and for the revenue part, contributors. Of course I think small players will have a hard time in this model, unless they have very unique niche content that has huge demand.

Uncle Pete · « **Reply #14 on:** January 07, 2021, 08:21 »

Quote from: Roscoe on January 04, 2021, 03:53

I hope you are right about Adobe, but I fail to see why they wouldn't - at a certain point in time - start dropping prices and commissions too either to match competition (and gain market share) or just to optimize their own earnings, or ... both.

Because Adobe is not in the stock photo business, they are in the CC and Software business. This is just a side benefit to attract customers to the other products. I'm happy to see what we get, while some others are just going to find things wrong, no matter what.

Quote from: Roscoe on January 04, 2021, 03:53

It's hard business, not charity.

Good to see someone else picking up on this stock supplier fact of life.

Quote from: everest on January 03, 2021, 13:54

The stock industry is consolidating faster than I thought only a few years ago. I think most players are irrelevant already that were still on the radar not so long ago.

Small players are already totally wiped out and sending anything to them is a huge waste of time and an opportunity that your content lands in the wrong hands. Middle tier have also mostly slipped down. Alamy 123RF, Dreamstine,Envato,Deposit are a shadow of what they were and in a few years will join the low ballers if they aren't already.

Mostly agree. I think Alamy will hold on because of their different position in the market. At least for people who have the right products to send them.

I'm actually surprised that the elimination of the parasites could have been faster. I think the reason why that hasn't happened is the huge profit margins from under paying artists, and artists who are happy to indiscriminately upload their images to anyone who will throw some change into their tin beggars cup. Total loss of control or knowing where your work is or who has it.

Unfortunately I don't think things will consolidate or get stabilized as fast as you see this changing. When the small ones start dropping, one after another, I'll jump on that train with you.

I've compared this to the software industry before. Much the same boom to bust. Independent little companies had nice products, useful and well made. But they couldn't hold up to the growth of the market or the demands and changes. Some got bought, some just went out of business. Some big players also went out at the same time.

Until we lose more of the agencies who got in while this business was hot and growing, for the short term profits, riding the wave... we'll still be scattered and getting the lowest pay, during an agency price war.

There's a point where the race to the bottom ends. Usually with a nasty crash, minimal profit from low margins, can't keep the small agencies in the black. This is a natural kind of business situation, which is usually even worse with anything involving a boom of a new technology or market.

Look to history for the answers. Anything from the railroads to airlines to computers or software. I won't go into railroads, but there's a long interesting history in the US. Airlines I hope most here are old enough to see what happened. Let me say Pan Am? Compaq (bankrupt - sold), IBM left the consumer market, Apple only survived because of the MAC, many others are just names on a long list of boom and bust. Software, Lotus 1-2-3 anyone, Wang word processing, America Online, Prodigy?

And for people here, right at home, Kodak and Polaroid.

Adapt and innovate or perish. The simple point being, just another stock agency is dead. The new ways to market and license, will take over.

Good luck everyone, being in the right places, moving up along with them. Bottom feeding, small agencies, in my opinion, are not the future. They are history.

Sion · « **Reply #15 on:** February 16, 2021, 22:05 »

Quote from: everest on January 04, 2021, 06:44

There are a few that come to my mind: Stocksy, Trevillion, Arcangel, Filmsupply.com, etc.....Everyone of them is focusing on a specific area of visual content. if they are going to survive in the long term is an open question. I hope so.

Quote from: eliaspraciano on January 03, 2021, 14:45
There are doing well for me. Much better than the big agencies.

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Author Topic: Checkmate is approaching faster than I thought Who will be the winner? (Read 7961 times)

everest

eliaspraciano

Horizon

sgoodwin4813

Roscoe

kall3bu

eliaspraciano

everest

everest

everest

everest

Horizon

pancaketom

Morphart

Uncle Pete

Sion

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